Read the full transcript of our weekly Blues chat.
Matthew DeFranks: Good afternoon! The conference finals seem to be nearing an end, and perhaps a rematch of last year's Cup Final is up next. Let's get to your questions.
Tylerg: Matty D, wishing all the best to you on becoming a first time father my guy. It’s the best feeling in the world
Matthew DeFranks: Thanks. We're just trying to get some sleep.
Tylerg: I have two questions for you and as always thanks for doing these chats. We love to hear from you also Greta salary cap article from a few days ago Ok, question number 1.)
How man games do you think Dalibor Dvorsky going to get in the ‘25-‘26 season? 2.) Do you think Crosby has a shot at 2,000 points? I was doing the math and if he has 4 more seasons at around 80 points he will get there. Do you think Syd has it in him? Thanks again man, sorry for sending these so chopped up!
Matthew DeFranks: On Dvorsky, I'd start with an estimate of like 30 games. He feels so much more advanced because of his development path, and playing in the AHL as a teenager, but we can remember that a Canadian player in Dvorsky's shoes would just now be exiting junior hockey.
If I look at Zack Bolduc a couple years ago, he played 25 games down the stretch. I would expect Dvorsky to be above that, but the Blues' insistence that they will not rush Dvorsky leads me to be a bit more conservative.
As for Crosby, he's currently at 1,687 career points. He'll turn 38 in August. And a decline is going to come at some point, but nothing has suggested that it's imminent. Everyone knows that he's been a point-per-game player in all 20 of his seasons, so your math is right that he would need four more years, but theoretically do it in about three-plus at his current 1.24 point-per-game pace (~250 more games).
I think he does it, even if it requires him to sign another contract. He would be just the second player ever to hit 2,000 points, and we all know the other one.
The bigger discussion around Crosby should be about the games he's missed. Whether it's because of his concussion, or the 2012-13 shortened season, or the 2019-20 shortened season or the 2020-21 shortened season. Those are all missing games in Crosby's legacy that makes you wonder what his true total would look like.
Phil in Louisville: Any updated opinions on how the Blues dealt Mikkola given his run of playoff success? I remember at the time Armstrong did an interview saying they had to make room for similar players that had similar talent/potential as Mikkola, but it seems clear Mikkola had a lot more to give than a Tucker or a Kessel. I know you had to give up something to get that 1st round pick in 2023, but did the Blues really think what Mikkola eventually signed for ($2.5M/year for 3 years) was out of the question at the time? Or was there an issue with the fit? I'm befuddled.
Matthew DeFranks: It's a good question, and it's one of the handful of defensive question marks from the last few years when we also throw in Walman, Dunn (although the expansion draft was different) and Pietrangelo (which I'm not sure we can classify as a mistake in evaluation).
You're right. At the time, the Blues looked at what Tyler Tucker was doing for them, and saw that Niko Mikkola was doing for them (14:12 at 5v5 on the third pair) and thought it was a simple replacement. I also think the Blues looked at Parayko, Leddy, Krug and Faulk and wondered where Mikkola was going to get top-four minutes in that group. Obviously, we know how injuries and performance impacted that group.
The Mikkola contract was almost $2M more than what the Tucker replacement would have been. Clearly, the Panthers have found something in Mikkola, and they've rewarded him with top-four minutes (17:10 a night!).
As for the deal with the Rangers, I like to look at Tarasenko as the first-round pick, and Mikkola as the third-round pick. But I guess it doesn't really matter. It all went to the same place like apple pie a la mode.
Sctdog: Army’s post season comments appear to suggest he’s fine w the top 4 on D, but we also know he pays attention to analytics and just the eye test regarding Faulk. How should we view Army’s comments. It seems clear the Blues need a top 4 D preferably one in his 20’s.
Matthew DeFranks: I don't think Faulk was as bad as a lot of people thought this season. I think we can look at different parts of the season and see that him and Broberg were being used as the No. 1 pair, and didn't get caved in. "Not getting caved in" is a low bar, sure, but the matchups were the matchups when Parayko was out.
I would tend to agree with you that a defenseman is needed, even without moving Faulk. Teams love to have depth on defense, and think back to last year when the Blues started the season with P.O Jospeh and Scott Perunovich.
I also wouldn't expect Armstrong to tank Faulk's value publicly now that Faulk's full no-trade lessens to a partial one in the summer.
Sctdog: Stretching back over a year Army has made comments suggesting he sees Scheen as a 3C at this point in his career. It appears from his 200 feet comment he needs a veteran 2C. Should we expect him to target through a trade such a player, maybe an RFA on a cap strapped team?
Matthew DeFranks: Yeah, I mean it's part of the reason why they approached Pavel Buchnevich last summer about playing center. It was a huge question in training camp, and Armstrong knew that. I think we can all give Brayden Schenn his props for keeping this group together, and wanting to be part of it, and then setting the tone physically in the playoffs. But the fact is that he's averaged 51 points per 82 games in the last five seasons. That's not enough for a second line center in today's NHL.
Marco Rossi would be a great addition, but I don't know if Minnesota would be willing to trade him within the division.
Sctdog: if you have to trade a Bolduc, Snuggy, or Dvorsky to get a 2C or top 4 D, which do you select?
Matthew DeFranks: Bolduc. I think the other two have higher ceilings, and Bolduc's contract is up first, meaning he becomes more expensive first.
Sctdog: can Holloway play center on the second line?
Matthew DeFranks: In spurts probably. But this was another early-season experiment that the Blues ran that frittered away. I also know at least one Blues scout prefers Holloway better as a winger because he's just better there.
Sctdog: Neighbors appears to be almost a unicorn amoung Blues forwards, a 20 goal scorer who fights hard in the corners. As FL has shown, similar to the 19 Blues, you need grit and shooters in your top 9. W the top 3 Blues prospects scoring forwards is a grinding top 9 player a need for the playoffs?
Matthew DeFranks: Neighbours has that hard skill that's tough to find. I think we can look at Dallas and Carolina right now and say that they're missing that. Tkachuk, Bennett, Marchand all have it. Not that Edmonton is overflowing with those types (Kane, Hyman maybe), but the Stars got punked with how they handled the entire Hintz situation, just as Carolina looked like that with the Aho-Tkachuk stuation.
Corey Perry was once the best in the world with that skillset, but it's not as impactful at this point in his career.
One GM used to tell me that they need to build two teams: one for the regular season, and one for the playoffs. And that physicality, hard skill allows players to fight through more in the playoffs when the space is tighter and the games harder hitting. I think it's also why you see the Stars struggling to score: Robertson, Johnston, Duchene, Seguin don't have that.
Bob: Reading about Mark Sauer and the historical financial struggles of the Blues, is the organization financially stable now? How much additional revenue was gained by hosting three playoff games?
Matthew DeFranks: The Blues are in a good spot. The biggest piece they have to figure out is the TV deal. They experimented with Matrix Midwest/KMOV and Victory+ this last season, and those numbers (not public) will help inform their decision moving forward. But the state of the fanbase is good, and the crowd responded to the late-season surge with attendance figures that were much, much better than the front half of the season.
Before the playoffs, I asked around the league what a home playoff game was worth, and the answer was about $2M in revenue. Obviously, not all of that is profit, but a good portion of that should be. So let's estimate about $6M in extra revenue, and that gets distilled after expenses and revenue sharing, etc.
Easy Ed - fan since 1967: Hi Matt, hope you are getting some sleep these nights. It appears obvious to add the type of player Army wants, he'll have to cut a salary or two. Which of the Blues' forwards that are peripheral have the highest trade value? I thought Joseph, who has a substantial cap hit, played well in the playoffs, defensively and forechecking especially. Am I wrong? As for defense, if Krug can come back, can Monty play him if he's on the track to be at his best? Which defensemen that they would trade has the best value? Of course, they'll want a good, 2-way forward and a solid defenseman. Which of these two do they need the most? Last, what are Dvorsky odds of making the team at some point--and which point. I see Pekarcik, who I've writing to you for years that I love, won the championship through great play. How far away is the 19-yr-old? Thanks.
Sorry, wrote the Dvorsky part before I read your last comment.
Matthew DeFranks: I think that Joseph ($2.95M) and Texier ($2.1M) are both candidates to trim salary around the edges. Both were healthy scratches for large parts of the season, and are overpaid for what they bring to the lineup. Texier would be a prime buyout candidate since he is under 26 years old. Normally, a buyout takes two-thirds of the remaining money and spreads it across double the term remaining on the contract. Under 25, it's just one-third.
So the Blues would only have to pay one-third of Texier's remaining $2.1M. That's $700,000, and spread across double the term remaining is two years. That's a $350,000 dead cap hit in the next two years that is so small in the grand scheme of the entire cap.
On Joseph, the Senators paid the Blues a third-round pick just to take on his contract. That was last summer, and Joseph's value has not increased since then, though there is one year fewer left on his contract now.
Until I'm told otherwise, I'm not expecting anything from Krug moving forward. If that happens, we'll deal with it then. But until that point, all the best to a really nice guy.
I think a 2C is more important than another defenseman right now. But I feel like the Blues do need both.
As for Pekarcik, he'll go to the AHL next season, and we'll go from there. I imagine Pekarcik and Dvorsky will find each other on a line at some point in Springfield.
DCG: MD: I know you went over this in a recent article, but I'm still confused about the dynamics in play with Krug's contract, assuming he continues to be on the long term injured list. Could you go back over this and assume I'm a moron (it's not hard, believe me). How does Krug's contract affect the Blues and their cap in the offseason? What about the regular season? Is there a difference? You referenced the possibility of trading the Krug contract. Why would a team want that?
Matthew DeFranks: Sure. So the Blues could opt to place Krug on LTIR before the season starts, which would allow them to exceed the salary cap by as much as $6.5M in the offseason. But the downside of that is that they would have $0 of cap space once the season began, and only be able to create space by removing players from the roster.
Another scenario is including Krug on the opening roster of the season, and then placing him on LTIR, which would allow the Blues to exceed the cap by close to his $6.5M during the season, depending on how close they were to the cap when they placed Krug on LTIR. This is what the Blues did this season, which allowed them to add Fowler without any cap troubles.
(And also was necessary early in the season due to Brandon Saad missing time with the birth of his child.)
So basically the options are offseason or in-season flexibility.
As for a team trading for Krug, you see LTIR contracts move around from time to time. Sometimes, it's to help a team get to the salary floor (think San Jose, Chicago, etc.). Sometimes, a team is already using LTIR, and is willing to take on the real money of a contract in exchange for a draft pick.
So an example would be Ben Bishop, who was actually traded from Dallas to Buffalo to finish his career. The Stars sent the Sabres a seventh round pick in order to have Buffalo take on Bishop's contract, and pay him the final year of his deal.
While it may seem that using LTIR is a simple maneuver for teams, it's actually quite complex and has some downsides, so teams will try their hardest to avoid it when they can.
Bill: I feel like the Blues need a legit #2 Center and to bump Schenn down to a good #3. Do the Blues make a legit run at Sam Bennett? I would not delve into the other 33+ year old centers in the FA pool. I still think another possible move is Kyrou prior to his NMC on July 1 and at a high value. It looks like Snuggy slots top 6 (probably first line) and you have Buch, Holloway, & Neighbors top 6 so we do have some depth there currently. Pettersson may be a buy low candidate if Vancouver chooses to move on from him.
Matthew DeFranks: Before the playoffs, I would has said yes. AFP Analytics projects Bennett ay 6 x $6.64M, but that feels pretty low after his physical showing so far this postseason. I've seen the chatter on Twitter about him being a $10M player, and I don't see that, but I do think he'll get more than that $6.64M.
I don't really understand the Trade Kyrou train. I get that you lose control of the situation shortly, but this guy still scores goals, took big steps away from the puck this season, and has a contract that will age beautifully.
Pettersson's cap hit should scare teams from him being a buy-low candidate. With seven more years at $11.6M, he better bounce back, and that's a lot of money to risk on it.
Barry-Blues Fan in Orlando: Happy Wednesday Matt. Good to see you are back in the Big Blues Chattin' Chair once again. Are you surprised Hofer has yet to sign? Is Hofer looking to test the offer sheet waters as he wants #1 goalie money versus a $2m per year contract as a backup? You know the rest of the teams are looking to burn the Blues with a high offer sheet to Hofer given what Army did to the Oilers and maybe the league with his offer sheet signings last summer. What say you?
Matthew DeFranks: Eh, not really. It's still May. There's no real pressure point to get anything done. There's still plenty of time. As for offer sheets, I would think it would have to be more than $4.68M in order for the Blues not to match, and at that point, they would get a first and a third.
In that $2.34M to $4.68M tier, the comp would only be a second-round pick. I'm not sure that would be enough for the Blues not to match at that point.
GoThunder: You are the Blues' GM: what are the perfect, but realistic deals you make this summer?
Matthew DeFranks: I haven't mapped out a plan for this summer. But I would be open to trading the No. 19 pick, open to buying out Texier to free up $1.75M, and looking to extend Broberg and Holloway.
Barry-Blues Fan in Orlando: Matt, with your leave of absence late in the season and the playoffs, I am curious do you know why the PD management didn't have Jeff Gordon, Tom Timmermann or some guy named Jim do the Wednesday Blues chats? It was the playoffs! Playoffs!! Playoffs!!? I missed those chats.
Matthew DeFranks: Tom was already taking on a lot. The man was the main reporter on Blues, City and SLU. Gordo has his chats on Friday. I was going to do the one before Game 5, but then life happened.
Asking for a Friend: It's being reported by the Daily Faceoff that JJ Peterka of the Sabres wants out of Buffalo. It has also been confirmed that Buffalo is shopping Bowen Byram. Here is a chance to once again get two solid younger players. Would the Blues have interest in moving Jordan Kyrou and their 2025 first round pick to obtain these two players. The Blues get a right winger on the upswing who produces close to Kyrou's stats while also getting a top 4 young defenseman who can play his off side (Right). By the time Juricek is ready for the NHL, Fowler will be gone and Byram and Broberg become the top two lefties on defense for the Blues. Kyrou can be the scorer that Buffalo is looking for to pair with Tage Thompson. Seems like a fair hockey trade for both teams.
Matthew DeFranks: I think that's still a bit rich for those two players. As mentioned before, I think Kyrou is a great asset given his production and contract.
But I believe chatters have been talking about Sabres defensemen for a couple years now with all eyes on their logjam there with Dahlin, Power and Byram. Byram has potential and has flashed it before with the Avs, but that would be a big bet. I wonder what the Blues think about his game, and what the pro scouts have seen in him.
Easy Ed - fan since 1967: Boy, I'd love to see Pekarcik and Dvorsky on a line, like Federko and Sutter (people have no idea how great those two guys were together, except Bernie is in the HOF). In fact, I think Federko is the greatest forward the Blues ever had. Bernie was our best center through all the turmoil the Blues and ownership and the BS; he held the franchise together with class. Hull, not as long with the Blues. Others, not as central. Thomas, maybe someday=for the present, he's there already, but many years short of Bernie. Your thoughts and the readers?
Matthew DeFranks: I think that's a good argument. Hard to go against the player with the most games, assists and points. I think Hull probably had the highest peak. Gretzky obviously had the best career outside of his time with the Blues. Thomas has the best potential to be a franchise icon currently on the team.
Barry-Blues Fan in Orlando: If the Blues have to sign Hofer to #1 goalie money, because of an incoming offer sheet or because that's what the Hofer camp demands, can you see Steemy (I hereby coincide with the phrase "Steemy" for Steen/Army) trade Binnington for a 2C? Anything is possible, right?
Matthew DeFranks: I don't think the Blues goaltender usage will be dictated by the contract figures they have, to be honest. If Binnington takes a downturn during next season, sure, more starts could come to Hofer. But I don't think that decision should be made based on cap hits.
DCG: Thanks for that explanation on Krug's contract and LTIR. I get it now.
Matthew DeFranks: I tried my best!
Barry-Blues Fan in Orlando: We Blues chatters missed you. Good to have you back!
Matthew DeFranks: We'll probably be a little more spotty during the summer at times when things slow down and not much has changed from week to week, but we'll see how that goes.
Barry-Blues Fan in Orlando: I agree with you Easy Ed. While Bernie was great, Sutter could score and protect Federko. I remember Sudsy fought a guy while having a partially dislocated shoulder.
Matthew DeFranks: I guess there's a reason Federko, Sutter and Hull are the only forwards with retired numbers.
DCG: Does the Blues turnaround this year and overall success really change anything about how they will go about their business from either a roster construction or playing time allotment than if they had missed the playoffs? I guess what I'm asking is that the talk about the season was that the success accelerated the Blues' overall rebuilding plan, but does that mean anything moving forward?
Matthew DeFranks: I think the biggest thing is that this season was sort of a proof of concept for the Blues that they could restock talent and also contend for a playoff spot. And that the Blues hockey ops department still has its chops in the pro scouting department, at least in the Pacific Division with Broberg, Holloway and Fowler.
But I think it turns next year into a very interesting one. It's the last year of Broberg and Holloway's cheap deals, and honestly could be one of the last productive years for the older players in their mid-30s. It's suddenly a win-now year where missing the playoffs isn't really a consideration.
KevoTG: We heard the 5 percent better next year line at the presser. Is the goal just that for the next couple years or are they going to push harder? And what do Bromberg and Holloway next contracts look like?
Matthew DeFranks: Doug Armstrong certainly made it seem like 5% better next year is the goal, and then I would imagine we get a redone vision once Alexander Steen takes over.
As for Broberg, let's see what Byram gets this summer, and that might set the market for Broberg after him. My guess would be somewhere in the $7M range for a long-term deal.
Holloway might be in the $7.5M range? Jesper Bratt is at $7.85M and he had 10 more points than Holloway in his contract year, and that was pre-cap increase.
Barry-Blues Fan in Orlando: Easy Ed....do you remember Parry Turnbull? That guy was a beast!
Matt, do you see any RFA's Steemy (Steen and Army) might go after this summer?
Matthew DeFranks: Peterka, Knies, Rossi and Bouchard will get a lot of the oxygen because of their numbers, but their contracts will already be high, so it's hard to pay above market value to secure them, and then they will also have big draft pick compensation attached to them.
So I would think more along the caliber of Nick Robertson, Alexander Romanov, Zac Jones, etc.
But I don't see it happening in back-to-back summers, to be honest.
That'll do it for today. Thanks for stopping by!
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