Doug Armstrong expects fireworks around the league on Tuesday when free agency opens at 11 a.m. But will the Blues be involved in the fracas?
Maybe not as the NHL adjusts to the newly liberated salary cap, potentially resulting in inflated deals handed out to the top unrestricted free agents on the market.
“If you want to get a free agent and you go through the analytics and you chart out what the guy’s going to make, probably add 20% and another year, and that gets you in the conversation for him to say no to you,†Armstrong said. “But if you don’t get to that, you have no chance to get in the conversation.
“I do believe that July 1 is going to be a fireworks day. There could potentially be some really good value players (available) July 15. I’m not saying we’re not going to be active on July 1, talking, finding out who’s there, what it is. But I can see the headlines now ‘Wow, they overpaid for him.’ If we’re active July 1, that’s what I think will be written because that’s what gets you in the game.â€
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The Blues have had a quiet offseason so far. They re-signed backup goaltender Joel Hofer to a two-year contract. They used one of their three draft picks on winger Justin Carbonneau. But that’s been all ÃÛÑ¿´«Ã½ has been able to execute so far.
The needs for the Blues are clear. They could use a second-line center to fill a role immediately, lengthening the Blues to a three-line team with Robert Thomas and Brayden Schenn also down the middle while also giving Dalibor Dvorsky more time to develop. They could use a young right-handed top-four defenseman to populate the roster as the rest of the defense ages into their mid-30s.
One thing Armstrong has made clear in conversations with reporters across the last week is that the Blues will not sacrifice the long-term plan — building around players in their early 20s — for a temporary stopgap option.
“We’re going to have growth inside,†Armstrong said. “I did talk about our wings. We’re very strong on the wing right now. I talked about we’re one of 27 teams that would love to find a second-line center. That’s just the reality of it. I don’t know if we can. You’ve seen, since we last talked, these guys are signing with their own teams. Everyone is finding a way. You have to be prepared to react to what’s available on July 1.
“If we make a trade, it will be one (that is) an apple for an apple. Because we’re going to trade someone (in a position) that we may have a surplus for someone in an area that we need in the same age group. I don’t want, like we talked whenever we talked last, is moving a younger player for an older player for a short-term fix. That isn’t where we’re at in our maturation.â€
The center options on the open market are limited. Matt Duchene (Dallas), Sam Bennett (Florida), John Tavares (Toronto), Claude Giroux (Ottawa) and Ryan Donato (Chicago) all re-signed with their respective teams before hitting free agency. Mikael Granlund (66 points in 83 games), Pius Suter (46 points in 81 games), Jack Roslovic (39 points in 81 games) and Christian Dvorak (33 points in 82 games) are the only centers on the UFA market with at least 30 points last season.
After signing Hofer to a contract with a $3.4 million cap hit, the Blues have about $2.5 million in cap space. That can widen to about $9 million if the Blues choose to put Torey Krug on long-term injured reserve.
“If we move guys, it’s to open up spots more than it is to open up money, just because of the number of players we have returning,†Armstrong said.
Last season, the Blues were the best team in the league after the 4 Nations Face-Off break with Thomas, Schenn, Oskar Sundqvist and Radek Faksa down the middle. Faksa is a free agent, but Armstrong noted that “we had a great final push there with our center-ice the way it was.â€
“Schenner is not getting younger, (but) he can do the job (as a second-line center),†Armstrong said. “If we could support him, that would be great, but he can do the job. It’s just if we could add another layer of people in there.
“I think it’s easier to say than to do when you look at the number of teams trying to accomplish that. You saw the number of teams trying to accomplish that last year, and those centers made a lot of money. You guys can judge how it worked out for everybody. There’s a shortage of players. There’s a shortage of players in certain areas. It’s just reality.â€
Last summer, the biggest deals for centers were for Steven Stamkos (four years, $8 million average annual value), Elias Lindholm (seven years, $7.75 million AAV) and Chandler Stephenson (seven years, $6.25 million AAV).
Tuesday will also be a big day for no-trade clauses on the Blues.
It’s when they kick in for both Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou, the latter of whom has been mentioned in trade rumors across the past week. But it’s also when protection erodes for Schenn (moving to a 15-team no-trade list), Justin Faulk (15-team no-trade list) and Nick Leddy (16-team no-trade list).
Tuesday is also the first day the Blues can sign Cam Fowler, Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway to contract extensions. All three players are entering the final year of their contracts, but Armstrong said those would not be a priority this summer.
So all eyes are on what the Blues can do in free agency on Tuesday.
“We’re not bargain shopping,†Armstrong said. “It’s not like we’re afraid to get in to the other market, but it would have to make sense for us to do that.â€
ÃÛÑ¿´«Ã½ Blues general manager Doug Armstrong speaks with the media on Friday, June 27, 2025, after the first day of the NHL draft. (Video courtesy ÃÛÑ¿´«Ã½ Blues)