As the Cardinals host Philadelphia on Saturday at 1:15 p.m. in the second of three at Busch Stadium, ÃÛÑ¿´«Ã½' chances can be answered with a question.
Which Miles Mikolas will show up?
His ERA was third-worst among qualified starters in 2024. Only 12 qualified starters were less valuable than Mikolas (0-1, 11.25) last season by Fangraphs wins above replacement value.
But those statistics can belie the numbers behind the right-hander's effectiveness.
In both the number of quality starts (15) and percentage (46.9%) in 2024, Mikolas ranked toward the middle of all starters, certainly not indicative of his standing in other metrics as one of baseball's least valuable starters.
Conversely, Mikolas has allowed five or more earned runs 10 times since the start of 2024, two more such games than any other pitcher. The Cardinals are 1-9 in those games.
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Mikolas' 2025 starts have been a microcosm of that wild variability: a solid 5 1/3 inning effort in which he allowed two earned runs vs. the Angels followed by an eight earned run meltdown at Boston in which he couldn't complete the third inning.
Facing Philadelphia, a National League contender, the better version of Mikolas is needed, because the Phillies will send out left-hander Cristopher Sanchez (0-0, 4.09), who ranked seventh among MLB starting pitchers last season in Fangraphs wins above replacement value.
Before the game, the Cardinals placed shortstop Masyn Winn on the 10-day injured list and activated Nolan Gorman. Winn was removed from Friday's game with back spasms but said after the game that it wouldn't require a stint on the IL.
The Cardinals, after Friday's 2-0 series-opening win, are 6-7. The Phillies are 8-5 and have lost three of four.
Lineups
CARDINALS
1. Lars Nootbaar, LF
2. Luken Baker, DH
3. Willson Contreras, 1B
4. Nolan Arenado, 3B
5. Brendan Donovan, 2B
6. Jordan Walker, RF
7. Pedro Pagés, C
8. Victor Scott II, CF
9. Thomas Saggese, SS
P: Miles Mikolas, RHP
PHILLIES
1. Bryson Stott, 2B
2. Trea Turner, SS
3. Bryce Harper, 1B
4. Kyle Schwarber, DH
5. Nick Castellanos, RF
6. Max Kepler, LF
7. J.T. Realmuto, C
8. Alec Bohm, 3B
9. Brandon Marsh, CF
P: Cristopher Sanchez, RHP
Injury report
Masyn Winn, SS (back spasms): Placed on the 10-day injured list due to lower back spasms experienced April 11. Winn was going to be unavailable for between four to six days, and the Cardinals opted for a more conservative approach with their young shortstop due to cold weather and his past experience with back spasms. Updated April 12
Ivan Herrera, C (knee inflammation): Herrera sustained a bone bruise to his left knee, and that will require at least four weeks to heal. He is walking around without pain and starting to move more comfortable in workouts, but he has not yet been cleared for baseball activities. Updated April 12
Nolan Gorman, INF (hamstring strain):Â Returned from the IL on Saturday and will be active and available for the afternoon game against the Phillies. Updated April 12
Zack Thompson, LHP (lat strain): Remained in Jupiter, Florida, to begin a throwing program after a month of limited activity and no throwing. Thompson went through multiple checkups and scans to monitor the healing of a tear in his lat on the left side, and they did not show any setback to delayed Thompson's scheduled move to the injured list. On April 7, Thompson was transferred to the 60-day IL. Updated April 7
