蜜芽传媒

Entering this year, if we were to compare strengths of baseball divisions to college football conferences, the American League East would鈥檝e been the Southeastern Conference, the National League East would鈥檝e been the Big Ten and the NL Central would鈥檝e been 鈥� hold on, I have to Google it because all I know it is has something 鈥淎merica鈥� in it 鈥� ah, yes, the American Athletic Conference.

No one was supposed to be particularly good. And definitely not the transitioning Cardinals, who didn鈥檛 sign a free-agent hitter or starting pitcher.

But come Monday, only one division in Major League Baseball had four teams with positive run differentials. Not only that, but the NL Central鈥檚 Chicago Cubs had the second-highest run differential in the sport 鈥� Chicago鈥檚 plus-97 was just a run behind the Yankees鈥� plus-98.

Yup, in addition to the 37-22 Cubbies, the 33-26 Cards were plus-30, the 32-28 Brewers were plus-18 and, surprisingly, the 29-31 Reds, like the Redbirds, were plus-30. Only pitiful Pittsburgh (22-38) was in the negative (minus-58).

So what does this mean for the Cardinals? Now, before 2023, it would鈥檝e been an even bigger issue for 蜜芽传媒. Back then, division teams played one another 19 times a year. But now, it鈥檚 13 times a year. So being in a winning division isn鈥檛 as daunting as before. And of course, there are more playoff spots than ever before.

Different stat sites have different mathematical models for determining a team鈥檚 strength of schedule. When you look at FanGraphs, the Reds have the 鈥渢oughest鈥� schedule for the rest of the year in the NL Central (.508 strength of schedule winning percentage), while 蜜芽传媒 and Chicago have the easiest (.496).

FanGraphs also determines a 鈥渞est of season鈥� winning percentage. The Cubs have the highest in the division (.525), and the Cards and Brewers have the same .498 (but because 蜜芽传媒 is currently ahead of Milwaukee in the standings, it has the Cards at 84.3 projected wins and the Brew Crew at 82.8).

As of Monday, the Cubs had a an 85.8% chance to play in the postseason, while 蜜芽传媒 was at 37.2%, Milwaukee at 26%, Cincinnati at 4.2% and Pittsburgh at 0.2% (so you鈥檙e saying there鈥檚 a chance!).

The Reds鈥� positive run differential, though, shows that they could be a pesky opponent, especially in the small sample size of a series. And the Reds haven鈥檛 yet received reinforcement offensively from Matt McLain, who was projected to be, you know, good. And Cincy entered Monday with the fifth-best ERA (3.75) and the second-best WHIP (1.21) in the National League.

The Brewers are, suddenly, fascinating. The club doesn鈥檛 club 鈥� Milwaukee has the third-lowest on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) in the NL (.683, only in front of Pittsburgh and Colorado). But the Brewers entered Monday on a seven-game winning streak. They catapulted to fifth in the NL in runs scored. And Christian Yelich suddenly looks like, well, MVP Christian Yelich (the veteran star earned Major League Baseball鈥檚 award for the NL鈥檚 top player last week, after Yelich went 10 for 20 with three homers, including a walk-off grand slam against Boston).

And six of Milwaukee鈥檚 next nine are against sub-.500 opponents, prior to the June 12-15 series in Wisconsin against ... the 蜜芽传媒 Cardinals.

I just don鈥檛 think Milwaukee has the relief pitching prowess to last a whole season in the division race. The Brewers are ninth in NL ERA (3.98), and while their starters have overachieved, their bullpen has underachieved (or, I suppose, accurately achieved). Milwaukee鈥檚 鈥檖en has a 4.56 ERA (11th in NL) and has walked 104 batters (only relievers from Miami and Colorado have walked more guys, but not even that many more 鈥� 106 for each).

As for the Cubs, they are surviving on the mound, even with Shota Imanaga (hamstring) on the injured list and Justin Steele (elbow) out for the year 鈥� Steele, if you recall, had ERAs the previous three seasons of 3.18, 3.06 and 3.07. And their offensive has been so good, it鈥檚 the closest the Dodgers have to an NL equivalent. Los Angeles has an impossible team OPS of .817 (last year, LA was tops in NL team OPS, at .781). But second this season is Chicago (.783). Sure enough, the Cubs have the second-most homers, doubles and walks.

Free-agent signing Kyle Tucker has been worth every cent 鈥� he鈥檚 hitting .284 and is seventh in the NL with a .917 OPS. But the most exciting player on the North Side is a fellow named Pete Crow-Armstrong, who really does have a strong arm (94th percentile on Baseball Savant). He鈥檚 also good at everything else. He鈥檚 a wonder. 鈥淧CA,鈥� as they call him, has 15 homers and 19 stolen bases. He has a .280 average and 51 RBIs. He鈥檚 becoming a must-see player 鈥� or, visually specifically, a can鈥檛-take-your-eyes-off-him guy.

And for those into trivia, his mom is an actress and played the mom of the kid MLB manager in the 1994 film 鈥淟ittle Big League.鈥�

Chicago might need to make a deal for a starter in the coming weeks. And the Cubs face the first-place Tigers and Phillies in the coming stretch. But they sure have the edge on the others in the division, even if the others in the division are better than expected.

Again though, how cool is this: In what was expected to be a lost year for 蜜芽传媒, the Cardinals-Cubs rivalry games will be relevant at Busch and Wrigley. And these two teams still have all 13 games to play.

But I still think, come the final series of the 蜜芽传媒 season (which is fittingly in Chicago), the Cards will be playing for a wild-card spot, not the division title.