COLUMBIA, Mo. — The margin for error built so efficiently by Missouri men’s basketball early in Southeastern Conference play is eroding. Now, the No. 21 Tigers need to keep their season from imploding.
That’s a bit of melodrama to feed the rhyme, but fresh off an 0-2 week, the stakes have risen against for Mizzou (17-6 overall, 6-4 SEC).
MU losing to then-No. 4 Tennessee and then-No. 10 Texas A&M by a combined seven points last week is not the stuff of catastrophe. The vast majority of SEC teams have and will experience back-to-back losses in league play.
Pragmatically, Missouri only needs two more wins for a real shot at making the NCAA Tournament — and is favored to win six more between now and the end of the regular season, according to KenPom’s modeling.
But heading into this week’s games against Oklahoma (16-7, 3-7) — tipping off at 8 p.m. Wednesday in Mizzou Arena — and at Georgia (16-8, 4-7), Mizzou is at a fork in the road.
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The Tigers have demonstrated they can keep pace with just about anyone — the relatively narrow loss to the Volunteers confirmed that. They’ve also shown that they can play competitively in different styles — check out how MU tumbled in the mud with the Aggies for that.
But Mizzou has not asserted itself as a bona fide top-tier team in the SEC. Last week was a chance to do so but wound up a missed opportunity.
Missouri is staring down its more favorable back half of the conference schedule, positioned between two diverging groups of programs.
Atop the league are No. 1 Auburn and No. 2 Alabama, both with one loss in SEC play — and one destined to pick up another in a massive rivalry duel on the hardwood this weekend. No. 3 Florida, No. 5 Tennessee and No. 8 Texas A&M are the pack of chasers.
From those five teams — tentatively and theoretically — will emerge the four teams that receive double byes in the SEC tournament, good for berths right into the quarterfinals.
The key for those top three teams? As Tigers coach Dennis Gates pointed out Tuesday, they’re the only three not to lose back-to-back SEC games at some point.
“I don’t know the last time that took place,†Gates said, pointing to the overall strength of the conference. “It’s a tremendous thing to be a part of it and obviously do the things that we can do to make sure we continue to perform.â€
A week ago, MU was in that mix too. Now, the Tigers are mixed up with the likes of No. 19 Mississippi, No. 22 Mississippi State and Vanderbilt — all three of which Missouri has beat this season.
Those teams are all on paths to the NCAA Tournament but lack the potential of that upper echelon.
Playing to Mizzou’s favor, at this point, is its schedule. MU’s toughest remaining fixtures are against the Crimson Tide and No. 15 Kentucky, both of whom the Tigers will face on their home floor.
Missouri still has its chance to pounce on a South Carolina side that is winless in league play, road rematches with inconsistent Arkansas and Vanderbilt, this weekend’s away tilt against Georgia and two matchups with the Sooners.
That’s a lot of winnable games, if Mizzou is up for them. And that’s what’s on the line for its first game of the season against old Big 12 foe Oklahoma: a chance to prove the Tigers are capable and willing of beating the teams seemingly beneath them when given the chance.
Mizzou Arena could be quieter than it has been lately for Wednesday’s late tipoff against the Sooners. Snow forecast to blanket parts of Missouri might keep some fans from trekking to the arena.
OU began its SEC debut with a perfect run through nonconference play that included wins over the likes of Arizona, Louisville, Michigan and Providence. League action has been much harsher for the Sooners, though: Their lone SEC wins have come from the conference’s basement, against South Carolina, Arkansas and Vanderbilt.
Forward Jalon Moore leads Oklahoma with 17.7 points per game, but freshman Jeremiah Fears has been Oklahoma’s early breakout sensation, putting up 15.5 points per game.
Fears is likely to be a lottery pick in this year’s NBA draft, in part because he graduated from high school early to play college ball.
“He’s supposed to be at Men’s Wearhouse getting a tuxedo for his prom,†Gates said.
Mizzou’s coach will have a personal matchup taking place on the sidelines: His younger brother, Armon Gates, is an assistant coach on the Sooners’ staff.
Armon is in his first year with OU after assistant stops at Oregon, Nebraska, Northwestern, Loyola-Chicago and Kent State.
“Very proud of what he’s done in his profession,†Dennis said. “He’s an unbelievable coach. He’s been on staffs that have won and changed programs.â€
Dennis only recalls coaching against his brother two times before: During the 2008-09 season, when Dennis was an assistant at Northern Illinois, Armon was an assistant at Kent State and those teams met in Mid-American Conference action.
The Gates family is excited for two of its members to face off — and they’re excited to bump into each other.
“I’m excited to see my brother,†Dennis said. “I haven’t seen him in a while — our schedules are always like two ships passing in the night. When I get the opportunity to see him, that’ll be great pregame. But it’s still competition, no different than sibling rivalries always were.â€
Mizzou basketball guard Tamar Bates, left, speaks with the media on Sunday, Dec. 22, 2024, after Illinois' Braggin' Rights win over Mizzou at Enterprise Center. (Video by Ethan Erickson, Post-Dispatch)